Posted October 02, 2012

Pennant Race Standings: October 1

If the season ended today, Pennant Race Standings, Pennant races

Standings updated through all the games of Monday, October 1; Postseason Odds last updated Monday morning.

NOTE: For the remainder of the regular season, Hit and Run will have a daily post updating the standings relevant to the postseason races. The positive numbers under Games Behind for the wild-card leaders indicate their lead over the second-place team in the race for home-field advantage in the wild-card game. The Elimination Number (E#) column indicates the total number of the given team’s losses and leading team’s wins needed to eliminate that team from the race (essentially the reverse of a magic number). The magic number of the leading team is the elimination number of the second-place team. Postseason Odds are from ClayDavenport.com and will be updated in the mornings only.

p = clinched playoff spot
d = clinched division title

AL East

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
p-Yankees 93-67 .581 - - 64.8
p-Orioles 92-68 .575 1.0 2 35.2

Postseason Path: Both the Yankees and Orioles have clinched no worse than a wild-card berth. The Yankees can clinch the division by winning their last two games against the Red Sox. If they only win one and the Orioles win their last two against the Rays, or if the Yankees win none and the Orioles win one, the two teams will play a one-game playoff for the division in Baltimore on Thursday with the loser becoming one of the two wild-card teams. If the Yankees lose their last two games and the Orioles win their last two, the Orioles will win the division outright.

AL Central

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
d-Tigers 87-73 .544 - - 100.0
White Sox 84-76 .525 3.0 E -

Postseason Path: The Tigers clinched the division with a 6-3 win over the Royals on Monday night.

AL West

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
p-Rangers 93-67 .585 - - 93.4
p-Athletics 92-68 .572 1.0 2 6.6

Postseason Path: Both the Rangers and A’s have clinched no worse than a wild-card berth. The Rangers can clinch the division by beating the A’s in either of their two remaining head-to-head games in Oakland this week. The A’s need to sweep the Rangers this week to win the division outright. The two teams cannot finish in a tie by cause they are playing each other.

AL Wild-Card

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
p-Athletics 92-68 .575 - - 89.3
p-Orioles 92-68 .575 - - 64.8
Rays 89-71 .556 3.0 E -
Angels 88-71 .553 3.5 E -

Postseason Path: The A’s clinched the final American League playoff spot by beating the Rangers 4-3 on Monday night. They own the home-field tiebreaker over the Orioles by virtue of having won their season series 5-4.

AL Home-field Advantage Throughout Playoffs

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
Yankees 93-67 .581 - - n/a
Rangers 93-67 .581 - - n/a

Postseason Path: The Yankees hold the home-field tiebreaker over the Rangers by virtue of having won their season series 4-3.

If the season ended today:

  • The A’s would host the Orioles in the wild-card game.
  • The wild-card game winner would open at home against the Yankees in the Division Series.
  • The Tigers would open at home against the Rangers in the other Division Series.

NL East

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
d-Nationals 96-64 .600 - - 100.0
p-Braves 93-67 .581 3.0 E -

Postseason Path: The Nationals clinched the division with the Braves’ 2-1 loss to the Pirates Monday night.

NL Central

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
d-Reds 96-64 .600 - - 100.0

NL West

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
d-Giants 93-67 .581 - - 100.0

NL Wild-Card

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
p-Braves 93-67 .581 +6.0 - 100.0
Cardinals 87-73 .543 - - 95.0
Dodgers 85-75 .531 2.0 1 5.0

Postseason Path: If the Dodgers sweep the Giants and the Cardinals lose their last two games to the Reds, the Dodgers would host a one-game tiebreaker for the wild-card spot on Thursday. The Braves have clinched home-field for the wild-card game.

NL Home-field Advantage Throughout Playoffs

Team W-L Pct. GB E# Odds
Reds 96-64 .600 - - n/a
Nationals 96-64 .600 - - n/a
Giants 93-67 .581 3.0 E n/a

Postseason Path: The Nationals hold the home-field tiebreaker over the Reds by virtue of having won their season series 5-2.

If the season ended today:

  • The Braves would host the Cardinals in the wild-card game.
  • The wild-card winner would open at home against the Nationals.
  • The Giants would open at home against the Reds in the other Division Series.

Tiebreakers:  A two-way tie for first place in a division or the second wild-card spot would be decided by a single playoff game on Thursday, October 4. A two-way tie for homefield advantage would be decided by head-to-head winning percentage. For details on other tiebreak scenarios look here.

2 comments
andy.goder
andy.goder

How do you have the A's at only a 6.6% chance of winning the division? Surely their chance of winning two in a row is at least 20%.

Michael10
Michael10

They have not updated the odds yet today--only the standings.  Clay Davenport has the A's at a 16.3% chance to win the division, the Orioles at 11.7% and the Dodgers at 2.6% (which likely includes a coin-toss game in tie scenarios).