Posted January 04, 2013

JAWS and the 2013 Hall of Fame Ballot: Best available at each position

Hall of Fame, JAWS
Graig Nettles was the Hot Corner-stone of the great Yankees teams in the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Paul Kennedy/SI)

Graig Nettles was the Hot Corner-stone of the great Yankees teams in the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Paul Kennedy/SI)

Every couple of years during Hall of Fame season, I like to revisit an idea that was inspired by Bill James, identifying the top players at each position who remain outside the gates of Cooperstown. The concept is a nod to James’ systematic Keltner Test, which is named for former Indians third baseman Ken Keltner, a seven-time All-Star who’s best known for his defensive work in helping to end Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak in 1941. James’ test is a set of 15 questions that can be used to frame a player’s case for Cooperstown. One of the most important: “Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?” [emphasis in original]

Given the recent elections of players such as Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin and Ron Santo who could make such a claim, an annual crop of new candidates, and tweaks to the JAWS methodology, the answers to that question change with some frequency, making it worthwhile to take another trip around the diamond for what I like to call the Keltner All-Stars.

Catcher (49.3 career WAR/32.0 peak WAR/40.7 JAWS): Mike Piazza (56.1/40.7/48.4)

A 12-time All-Star who can lay claim as the best-hitting catcher of all-time, Piazza is in his first year on the ballot. Even with his throwing woes, he’s tied with Yogi Berra for fifth in JAWS. He doesn’t appear likely to be elected this year, polling around 60 percent in Baseball Think Factory’s voter straw poll, but that’s a strong enough debut that he should gain entry within a few years. Ivan Rodriguez (63.7/37.8/50.7, third among catchers) won’t become eligible until 2017, so if Piazza does go in before then, the mantle falls to Joe Torre (54.2/35.2/44.7, seventh among catchers), who spent more time at catcher (903 games) than any other position, but more time at first and third base combined (1,302 games) than behind the plate. A nine-time All-Star who won the NL batting title and MVP honors in 1971, Torre additionally has six pennants and four world championships to his credit as a manager, and may well be elected via either the 2014 Expansion Era ballot or the 2015 Golden Era ballot, assuming the Hall doesn’t change its rules once again.

First Base (62.3/40.7/51.5): Jeff Bagwell (76.7/46.7/61.7)

A five-time All-Star who earned NL MVP honors in 1994 and put up impressive numbers despite spending much of his career in the Astrodome, Bagwell ranks sixth among first basemen in JAWS. In his third year of eligibility, he’s gaining momentum among the electorate (67.4 percent in the BTF poll), though he’s likely going to have to wait at least one more year. Once he does get in, the honor at the position will fall to Bagwell’s birthday twin, Frank Thomas (69.7/.43.7/56.7, ninth among first basemen), a two-time AL MVP who reaches the ballot next year.

Second Base (66.0/42.8/54.4): Bobby Grich (67.3/44.3/55.8)

For stat-minded fans of a certain age, Grich’s absence from Cooperstown ranks among the great injustices of the universe, making him the keystone equivalent of Santo. From 1970 through 1986, he combined good power with excellent plate discipline and outstanding defense while playing on five division-winning teams in Baltimore and Anaheim. Grich earned All-Star honors six times, won four Gold Gloves and led the AL in homers and slugging percentage during the strike-shortened 1981 season. Unfortunately, injuries — including a herniated disc caused by carrying an air conditioner up a stairway — cost him about a season’s worth of playing time and forced him into retirement after his age-37 season. Between that and his 13 percent walk rate (en route to a .371 on-base percentage), he finished his career with just 1,833 hits, a total that appears to be an impediment to election, given that no player from the post-1960 expansion era with fewer than 2,000 hits has been elected.

The great injustice took place in 1992, when Grich debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot and received just 2.6 percent of the BBWAA vote, less than the 5.0 percent needed to stick around. Since then, he has yet to appear on a Veterans Committee ballot, but hopefully, he’ll be on the 2014 Expansion Era one. Just behind Grich, and suffering a similar one-and-done fate among BBWAA voters, is Lou Whitaker (71.4/36.5/54.0), who paired with Alan Trammell in the Tigers’ middle infield for nearly two decades. Speaking of which . . .

Shortstop (63.1/41.0/52.1): Alan Trammell (67.1/43.3/55.2)

An outstanding two-way shortstop who was somewhat overshadowed by Hall of Fame contemporaries Robin Yount and Cal Ripken, Trammell was a six-time All-Star and the 1984 World Series MVP. Robbed of the 1987 AL MVP award, he has gone unappreciated on the ballot since 2002; only last year did he even climb above 25 percent, to a whopping 36.8 percent. Trammell ranks 11th among shortstops in JAWS, tied with Derek Jeter (but with a peak that’s 2.3 WAR higher), and two rungs ahead of 2013 inductee Barry Larkin.

Third Base (64.9/41.8/53.4): Graig Nettles (62.8/40.1/51.5)

This one’s a little trickier if we look past Edgar Martinez (64.4/41.8/53.1), who created significant value at third before being shifted to the DH role to preserve his Cooperstown-caliber bat. Nettles ranks 13th in JAWS at the hot corner, below future eligibles Chipper Jones (fifth), Scott Rolen (10th) and Adrian Beltre (12th). A six-time All-Star who played on five pennant-winning teams for the Yankees and Padres (with additional stops elsewhere), he admittedly falls a little short of Hall-worthy, but he was a spectacular fielder whose defensive metrics (134 runs above average) match the legend, and who provided plenty of pop and patience at the plate.

Leftfield (61.7/39.7/50.7): Barry Bonds (158.1/71.1/114.6)

Owner of a record seven MVP awards as well as the highest WAR total of any player besides Babe Ruth or Cy Young, Bonds doesn’t appear likely to gain entry on the first ballot thanks to the PED allegations that surround the second half of his career and polarize so many fans, media members and voters. He’s currently at 44.9 percent in the BTF straw poll, high enough to suggest he’ll reach Cooperstown in a few years, warts and all. Now, the question is whether he’ll beat Tim Raines (66.2/41.1/53.7, eighth among leftfielders) to the dais. A seven-time All-Star and an on-base machine who holds the record for the best stolen base success rate in baseball history, Raines is polling above 60 percent in his sixth year on the ballot. We know he’s going to make it, but the question is when — just like the 3,200-odd times he reached first base in his career.

Centerfield (67.1/42.5/54.8): Kenny Lofton (64.9/42.0/53.5)

A six-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner and a stellar leadoff hitter in his own right, the well-traveled Lofton ranks eighth among centerfielders in JAWS, a hair below the average Hall of Famer but still above the median among that group. He’s in his first year on the ballot and in serious danger of getting lost in the crowd; the straw poll has him below 5.0 percent, and I couldn’t find room for him on my virtual ballot either. Hopefully, he can get a longer look.

Rightfield (69.5/41.3/55.4): Larry Walker (69.7/43.1/56.4)

A three-time NL batting champion whose stats admittedly received a boost from spending his prime in high-altitude Colorado, Walker edges past the standard in rightfield even after adjusting for his environment and ranks ninth among rightfielders. Like Lofton, he may hold this distinction for a while; his candidacy is now in its third year, but he’s polling under 15 percent at the moment, down even from the 22.9 percent he received last year.

Starting Pitcher (67.9/47.7/57.8): Roger Clemens (133.9/64.0/99.0)

Owner of seven Cy Young awards and the third-highest JAWS total of any starting pitcher, Clemens is tied with Bonds at 44.9 percent in his first year on the ballot due to PED allegations that he battled in front of a Congressional hearing, to no great benefit of his own. With fellow 300-game winners Greg Maddux (ninth in JAWS) and Randy Johnson (10th) becoming eligible in the next two years — along with Pedro Martinez (17th), Mike Mussina (30th), Tom Glavine (32nd) and fellow 2013 ballot newcomer Curt Schilling (29th) — voters will have no shortage of JAWS-approved starting pitchers to sort through.

Relief Pitcher (37.9/26.7/32.3): Bobby Shantz (32.5/23.7/28.1)

Until the still-active Mariano Rivera (52.7/27.9/40.3, second among relievers) becomes eligible, the honor of the highest-ranked eligible reliever belongs not to current ballot-dweller Lee Smith but to Shantz, a sidearm-tossing 5-foot-6 southpaw who ranks fifth in JAWS at the position, but below both the standard and the median. After some occasional success as a starter the Philadelphia A’s in the early 1950s — including the 1952 AL MVP award — Shantz became a standout reliever for the Yankees, Pirates, Astros and Cardinals in the late 1950s and early 1960s. His JAWS score is higher than Hall of Famers Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers, but he’s no real threat to join them in Cooperstown, and may not even get onto the next Golden Era ballot.

58 comments
Jeffff88
Jeffff88

JustinL:  to say that Rickey Henderson is only  in the Hall because he got 3,000 hits is literally the stupidest comment I've ever read on this board, and that's saying a lot:  people here are advocating Grich and Lofton get in the Hall, which is preposterous, yet you've trumped them all.  You not only don't know anything about Henderson, you clearly don't know much about baseball.

RikcXavierBjurström
RikcXavierBjurström

Why was there no DH??? Am I crazy or the DH still a major league position? If Edgar Martinez doesn't go the Hall of Fame, it's a tragedy.

MisterF99
MisterF99

Hi Mr Jaffe, Last year, in your article on Baseball Prospectus, Alan Trammell had a JAWS of 45.4 7 points behind Barry Larkin and 5 points behind HOF SS average. This year, Trammell is at 55.2 and Ahead of Larkin. How's that?

MattBugaj
MattBugaj

I will never again set foot in the Hall of Fame if Kenny Lofton is admitted.  Seriously?  Lofton?  He was good for a few years in Cleveland because he was a base stealer and they tend to have their impact at a younger age, but the guy played for 9 teams over the final 6 years of his career.  That's an average of 82 games per team.  It's not fame if nobody wants to keep you.

picklesmcgiggles
picklesmcgiggles

"Bonds doesn’t appear likely to gain entry on the first ballot thanks to the PED allegations"

 

Allegations? Far more than "allegations"!

ouiareborg
ouiareborg

Craig Nettles. One of the greatest  defensive players in baseball history, as well as a clutch hitter(Not to mention a number of good offensive moments). If you were to score 1-10 for offense and defense, he would have to have a score higher than Piazza. But he's a sure thing(Eventually). Even "The Legend"(Brooks Robinson), has said the Nettles deserves to be in the HOF. 

JUSTINL
JUSTINL

I am so tired of reading about JAWS and WAR and all these other formulas when it comes to players these days. I am sure in 5 years there will be another formula that shows why every player currently in the HOF does not belong in there. It's called the Hall Of Fame not the Hall Of Perfection. What I see with my own two eyes is more than enough to determine whether or not a player should be in Cooperstown or not. The players who are NOT in the HOF currently that should be in my opinion are: Trammell, Morris, Gil Hodges and Dale Murphy. Not sold on Tim Raines though. The guy played long enough where 3000 hits should have happened by accident but he never got it. No true peak imo and speed does not nothing for me. If Ricky Henderson had not reached 3000 hits I firmly believe he would still be waiting to get into the HOF.

PartyFerret
PartyFerret

Dale Murphy anyone?  7 time All-Star selection, 5 time Gold Glove winner, 4 time Silver Slugger, 2 Time MVP (back-to-back '82, '83.) The guy was a career .265 hitter, with 398 homers and 1,266 RBIs.  He also was one of the only bright spots on Atlanta teams that were seriously BAD.  Murphy was one of the cleanest ballplayers there was.  I just don't think it's fair that he doesn't get selected when he stuck with Atlanta for so many years when they were one of the NL's worst and he still produced MVP statistics.  I agree that he sparked in his career a little late and his career ended a bit short, but there's no discounting that he played on one of the crappiest teams in baseball and carried the team himself. 

AndrewSmith
AndrewSmith

Relief pitcher: Jeff Reardon. 367 Saves

JayMadisonHamilton
JayMadisonHamilton

These articles are why the Hall of Fame is really the Hall of Pretty Good.

Rogers Hornsby would be embarrassed to be considered in the same club as Bobby Grich, who I am sure is a nice guy, but is not a Hall of Famer.

nickp
nickp

I think I'm missing something about Grich.  Since when does .260 with 200 HRs get you in the Hall of Fame?

 

Rusty1
Rusty1

This one’s a little trickier if we look past Edgar Martinez (64.4/41.8/53.1), who created significant value at third-  BS BS BS - How can you ignore a significant contribution.  Gar in now

Rusty1
Rusty1

If Bonds or any of the other juicers get into the HOF it should forever afterward be known as the HALL OF SHAME.

bjvande
bjvande

When I read "Trammell ranks 11th among shortstops in JAWS, tied with Derek Jeter"  I think that the newer statistics, like WAR and the rest, still need more work.  Having had the chance to watch the careers of both men, there is no way that I would ever say that Trammel is Jeter's equal.   I realize that Jeter has range issues in the field, and I know that WAR and the rest try to include intangibles by looking at the tangible results that are produced.  Yet, for a system to say that the impact of the careers of these two is equal just astounds me. 

SuperDave
SuperDave

Frankly, the Hall will become a joke if marginal players keep getting in, even if its by the veterans committee vote. I don't see why there cannot be years where no one gets in.

CPUtalking2U
CPUtalking2U

The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe — first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 — as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history. The stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness.

DaveF
DaveF

How about Ted Simmons for catcher?  21 seasons, .285 career batting average (.332 in 1975), 9 time All Star, career WAR for position is 46.7 and would have been higher had he retired earlier.

Dave C
Dave C

You got that right!

Brad G
Brad G

The Hall of Fame is irrelevant as long as Pete Rose is excluded.

jayfurr
jayfurr

What is John Smoltz's JAWs score?

Jeffff88
Jeffff88

Bobby Grich for the Hall of Fame is a joke.  This retrofitting of value can go too far, just like juding a player for average or rbi went too far in the past.  Next you'll say that Reggie Smith and Gene Tenace deserve it, and Catfish Hunter doesn't.

 

The game is played on the field.  Use your eyes.  Kenny Lofton was a horrible center fielder:  every ball was an adventure and he couldn't throw.  Sure his speed made up for a lot of his poor judgment, but WATCH HIM PLAY.  He wasn't a good outfielder.  Stats are a great tool, so are eyes. 

JasonKaplan
JasonKaplan

tell me again why Gil Hodges is still not in the hall of fame?  His average is his only achilles heel.  Lifetime around 260 but he hit 20 or more home runs and drove in over 100 runs for like 7-8 straight seasons and had a fantastic glove at 1B for the BKLN Dodgers.  This was before the gold glove even existed.  And he only was part of a Bkln team that albeit won one world series but was in the WS a bunch of times.  If Chipper Makes it then keeping Gil Hodges out is a crime punishable by watching a curling marathon on TSN.  The only reason he isn't in is because of the early biases of the old timers committee.  Too many Yanks, Giants and Dodgers already in.  Gil was the odd man out.  Plus he then managed a group of misfits to a WS upset.  This guys got the stats to back up a hall entrance.

RickDesper
RickDesper

 @ouiareborg Nettles has a career OPS of .750, which is hardly interesting at all for a 3rd baseman.  (In comparison, his contemporaries included George Brett with a .857 OPS and Mike Schmidt with a .908 OPS.)  If he's the best 3rd baseman not in the Hall of Fame, well, somebody has to be the best 3rd baseman not in the Hall.  

JUSTINL
JUSTINL

 @nickp

 all they do is pull these outrageous formulas out of thin air every 5-7 years and then they find a player or two who best suites the numbers. Who knows, in 10 years they will start argueing that Carlos Quintana belongs in the HOF. Its a joke and I agree Grich got the small sniff he deserved and that was it.

bovalexia
bovalexia

 @nickp Since you look at all aspects of his game, not just two numbers.

MattBugaj
MattBugaj

 @bjvande OMIGOD OMIGOD OMIGOD The Jeter-is-overrated people are back!  Love you guys!  You make jealousy look like love!  I thought we were done with all this nonsense.

RickDesper
RickDesper

 @bjvande Trammell was a very good SS for quite a while.  Jeter's defense has been badly overrated for a long time.  Jeter does some things very well - high OBP and score a lot of runs, but scoring runs is to a great extent of the lineup he plays in.  

Uncle Al
Uncle Al

 Actually, I think in *this* instance, JAWS is working pretty well.  Jeter would be in my Hall of Overrated Fame, especially after he never offered to vacate SS and move to 3B when ARod, the superior defensive SS at the time of the trade, arrived.  If Jeter had played fo Detroit and Trammel had played for the Yankees, I think Trammel would already be in.

 

However, Trammel shouldn't be in ahead of Dale Murphy, who at his peak was *the* player in the NL you did not want to be pitching to with the game on the line, and who backed it up with a cannon arm in CF.

bovalexia
bovalexia

 @bjvande When I read "Trammell ranks 11th among shortstops in JAWS, tied with Derek Jeter"  I think that the newer statistics, like WAR and the rest, still need more work.  Having had the chance to watch the careers of both men, there is no way that I would ever say that Jeter is Trammel's equal.   I realize that Trammel has teammate issues (they weren't as good as Jeter's), and I know that WAR and the rest try to include intangibles by looking at the tangible results that are produced.  Yet, for a system to say that the impact of the careers of these two is equal just astounds me.

WarrenTwocock
WarrenTwocock

 @DaveF Simmons problem is that as a catcher he was a helluva DH. Simmons was brutal behind the plate leading the league in passed balls three times and finishing in the top 5 in errors by a catcher 9 times, including 1981 when he only caught 75 games. He had a big arm and carried a big stick but he was a terrible catcher.

RickDesper
RickDesper

 @Brad G Pete Rose gambled on games that he was involved in as a manager.  That's a very serious issue.

SuperDave
SuperDave

@Brad G I agree. His gambling should have zero bearing on his hall worthiness. Pete belongs in there. So does Shoeless Joe.

Jeffff88
Jeffff88

 @Brad G

 Everyone knows Pete deserves the Hall based on his playing, bue because of his gambling he shoiuld never be in. 

XTC
XTC

 @Jeffff88 Your eyes must not have seen Lofton during the 1st half of his career, when he was an extremely good fielder and deserved everyone of his Gold Gloves and more.  His defense deteriorated in his latter years.

Michael10
Michael10

Hodges isn't in because he played first base -- had he put up 20 HRs/100 RBI for seven seasons anywhere else in the infield, he'd be in.  Those sort of numbers are almost expected, baseline among HOF first basemen rather than peak.  Given that he benefitted from playing on a great NY team batting behind HOFers like Robinson, Reese, Campanella and Snider, his peak and career numbers (and circumstances) are very similar to Tino Martinez (Tony Perez benefitted from a similar role with Cincy in the 70s, but despite better numbers than Hodges is a borderline HOF case himself).  His career value is very, very close to another NY firstbaseman as well -- Don Mattingly (an Mattingly played only 14 seasons).

 

In fact, Hodges ranks behind a slew of more productive firstbasemen like Will Clark, Keith Hernandez, Fred McGriff, Norm Cash -- even John Olerud.  For a more telling comparison, take a look at Hodges' ten most similar players at Baseball-Reference.com -- none are HOFers, or even close.

 

 

StevenKeys
StevenKeys

 @JasonKaplan You didn't really expect young Jay to know who "Gil Hodges" was, did you Jason?  Anything that pre-dates Jay's (or his ilks) early baseball card collection (Barry Bonds '87?) will probably never fly onto his radar for consideration.

 

Agree, Gil Hodges should've been voted / selected many, many years ago. Pretty good manager, too.  I'd cast vote for Danny Murtaugh (Mgr), Steve Garvey and Jack Morris as well. 

nickp
nickp

 @bovalexia  @nickp Those are just two examples.  All of his numbers are good, but nowhere near HoF worthy.

bjvande
bjvande

 @MattBugaj  I will admit to being a huge Jeter fan.  However, I am not sure how it is possible to over rate a player who is in the top 10 in hits in all of baseball history.  I mean, only 9 players EVER had more hits.  Doesn't that make Jeter one of the all time greatest baseball players? And how can that be considered over rating a player? 

fastarnie
fastarnie

 @Jeffff88  @Brad G

 Wait a minute here. IS the HOF for what players did on the field and not off the field? With that in mind, PETE ROSE deserves to be in the HOF. ONLY the commish is holding him back. Get rid of the commish and Pete should go in.

StevenKeys
StevenKeys

 @JasonKaplan Uh oh, there's Bobby Shantz.  My apologies, Jay.  I broke Rule #1 in the Commentors' Handbook: read on.

 

Bobby, the guy the Cubs got in their often maligned trade of Lou Brock to the Cards in '64.  Lou gets to Missouri and suddenly becomes a hitter.  Go figure.  

RickDesper
RickDesper

 @ouiareborg That was the last sentence of my reply.  There were two sentences before it.

 

The premise of this article is to pick out the best players at each position not in the Hall of Fame.  If Nettles is the best 3rd baseman not in the Hall, that alone doesn't mean he should be in the Hall.  

Glensky
Glensky

@RickDesper @bjvande @MattBugaj There is more to being a HOFamer than stats, Jeter is one of the best examples of how to play the game with class, he is one of the best clutch players I have ever seen and his on field instincts are unbelievable (see the backhand toss to Posada to nail Giambi at the plate, he shouldn't have even been there). Jeter is a first ballot HOFamer, you can call him overrated all you want. He's getting in and deservedly so.

RickDesper
RickDesper

 @bjvande  @MattBugaj Jeter is overrated if you think that he's been good at things other than hits and runs.  People who think he's a great power hitter or great fielder are overrating him.  As are people who think he's had a career at the same level as Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio or Mantle.  Or Berra for that matter.  

Michael10
Michael10

Even if Simmons had produced similar offensive value to Bench, there's a big difference between a Gold Glove and and iron skillet, especially behind the plate...

hotcornerharbor
hotcornerharbor

 @WarrenTwocock  @hotcornerharbor  @DaveF Consider this, though: through 1983, Simmons had a 124 OPS+. For his career, which lasted only about 400 more plate appearances (not even a full season), Johnny Bench had a 126 OPS+. Now, Simmons wasn't the fielder Bench was, but at the same time, Bench is the gold standard for the position. Would Bench having five non-Hall type seasons be enough to knock him out of the Hall? Would any number of additional bad seasons have made anyone advocate keeping Bench out of the Hall?

 

Also, comparing him to only Hall catchers has its own issues, as the position is underrepresented in the Hall. There are only 13 non-Negro Leagues catchers in the Hall; compare that with, say, 20 Left Fielders, 18 first basemen, or 23 shortstops. Even if Simmons is a borderline top-10 catcher, most positions have well over 10 representatives in the Hall. 

 

I'd put him on the borderline (this analysis is similar: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/does-ted-simmons-belong-in-the-hall-of-fame/). The bigger point I wanted to make is, his defense isn't what's keeping him out. If anything, it's those final five seasons. Which is an interesting discussion in and of itself; can someone who has cleared Hall standards undo their case with bad seasons?

WarrenTwocock
WarrenTwocock

 @hotcornerharbor  @DaveF Sorry but Simmons was a below average catcher by any metric, particularly given the era he played in, and his offense just wasn't god enough to make up for his defense, a better analysis than the surface scratcher you quote would be: http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/2010/01/26/hall-of-excellentitude-ted-simmons/.

 

As for assuming that catchers who could hit can't field, I don't recall hearing that argument about Bench, Carter, Fisk or Munson , all contemporaries of Simmons.

JayMadisonHamilton
JayMadisonHamilton

 @StevenKeys  @JayMadisonHamilton  @JasonKaplan

 I didn't realize Shantz was part of that trade.  It's always referred to as Brock for Broglio. Thanks for the heads up.

Thanks also for acknowledging my place in US history.  It was not easy being a President, the first Chief Justice and Secretary of the Treasury.  And to have one of my lives cut short by that coward Aaron Burr -- oh, the shame.

 

StevenKeys
StevenKeys

 @JayMadisonHamilton  @JasonKaplan Looks like Ernie may've been part of the deal (baseball.reference.com) but I'm sticking with my Bobby Shantz claim.

 

That's some weighty name you've got, JMH.  Do people often curtsy when you enter a room?  You must be a fan of the Federalist Papers?  Interesting reading, for a time.  Don't forget to read through some of those Anti-Federalist writings, too.  They had some impact.