Posted October 08, 2013

Wacha, Gray, Cole gems rank among best from young starters in posteason history

Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Sonny Gray
Gerrit Cole, Pirates

Gerrit Cole’s terrific outing in NLDS Game 2 hasn’t even been the best rookie outing of that series. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Last Friday, 23-year-old Gerrit Cole helped the Pirates rebound from Game 1 A.J. Burnett’s implosion to help even the Division Series against the Cardinals. On Saturday, the A’s 23-year-old Sonny Gray matched zeroes with Justin Verlander for eight innings to do the same against the Tigers. On Monday, 22-year-old Michael Wacha no-hit the Pirates into the eighth inning to help Cardinals stave off elimination. Already, this postseason has included some of the best pitching performances from young starters in the Wild Card Era. With Cole set to take the mound again in Wednesday’s NLDS Game 5, it’s worth a look to put these starts in context.

Using Bill James’ Game Score – which credits or debits points for every inning, hit, run (earned and unearned), walk and strikeout — in conjunction with the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index, we can boil each start down to a single number roughly indicative of quality to use as a means of ranking each outing. Among starters 23 and under (i.e., those who have not yet reached their 24th birthday, as opposed to those who have not yet completed their age 23 season), here’s a table of the top 15:

Rk Player Age Date Series Gm Tm-Opp IP H R ER BB SO GSc
1 Josh Beckett 23.150 10/12/03 NLCS G5 FLA-CHC 9.0 2 0 0 1 11 93
2 Livan Hernandez 22.234 10/12/97 NLCS G5 FLA-ATL 9.0 3 1 1 2 15 90
3 Josh Beckett 23.163 10/25/03 WS G6 FLA-NYY 9.0 5 0 0 2 9 84
4 Mark Prior 23.026 10/3/03 NLDS G3 CHC-ATL 9.0 2 1 1 4 7 82
5 Sonny Gray 23.332 10/5/13 ALDS G2 OAK-DET 8.0 4 0 0 2 9 81
6 Madison Bumgarner 21.091 10/31/10 WS G4 SFG-TEX 8.0 3 0 0 2 6 80
7T Michael Wacha 22.098 10/7/13 NLDS G4 STL-PIT 7.3 1 1 1 2 9 79
Madison Bumgarner 23.085 10/25/12 WS G2 SFG-DET 7.0 2 0 0 2 8 79
Barry Zito 23.153 10/13/01 ALDS G3 OAK-NYY 8.0 2 1 1 1 6 79
10 John Lackey 23.354 10/12/02 ALCS G4 ANA-MIN 7.0 3 0 0 0 7 78
11 Matt Moore 22.104 9/30/11 ALDS G1 TBR-TEX 7.0 2 0 0 2 6 77
12 Josh Beckett 23.138 9/30/03 NLDS G1 FLA-SFG 7.0 2 1 1 5 9 73
13 Ismael Valdez 22.044 10/4/95 NLDS G2 LAD-CIN 7.0 3 2 0 1 6 72
14 Josh Beckett 23.159 10/21/03 WS G3 FLA-NYY 7.3 3 2 2 3 10 71
15T Gerrit Cole 23.026 10/4/13 NLDS G2 PIT-STL 6.0 2 1 1 1 5 68
Jeremy Bonderman 23.344 10/7/06 ALDS G4 DET-NYY 8.3 5 2 2 1 4 68
17 Jaret Wright 21.301 10/26/97 WS G7 CLE-FLA 6.3 2 1 1 5 7 67
18 Ubaldo Jimenez 23.257 10/6/07 NLDS G3 COL-PHI 6.3 3 1 1 4 5 64
19 Jon Lester 23.294 10/28/07 WS G4 BOS-COL 5.7 3 0 0 3 3 63
20 Cole Hamels 23.280 10/3/07 NLDS G1 PHI-COL 6.7 3 3 3 4 7 59

The ages are expressed in the form “years.days” so Beckett, for example, was 23 years and 150 days old when he twirled a two-hit shutout against the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS. The starts of Gray, Wacha and Cole all rank at least 15th or higher on the list. Space doesn’t permit me to run through each one in detail, but a few quick notes on the pitchers in the top 10.

1, 3, 12, 14: Josh Beckett
The 23-year-old had a postseason for the ages as he helped an upstart Marlins wild-card entry upset the Giants, Cubs and Yankees en route to the teal team’s second title in a seven-year span. Of Beckett’s five October starts, four of them are represented above, with at least one from each round; numbers 12 and 14 above actually came in losing causes. The top-ranked start helped Florida, which was down 3-games-to-1 in the NLCS, stave off elimination in the game preceding the infamous Bartman game, while the third-ranked start finished the Yankees off in the World Series.

Not included here is Beckett’s crucial four-inning relief stint on two days’ rest in Game 7 of the NLCS. All told, he finished that postseason with a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings, an average Game Score of 72 for his five starts and a World Series MVP trophy.

2: Livan Hernandez
From the Marlins’ first championship run in 1997 comes the infamous start by the rookie Cuban defector. Aided by home plate umpire Eric Gregg’s extra-extra-wide strike zone, Hernandez set what still stands as an NLCS record with 15 strikeouts; what’s more, he outpitched the great Greg Maddux, who whiffed nine in seven innings while allowing two runs. Via Game Score, this stands as the best Wild Card Era start by a rookie.

4: Mark Prior
Before the Cubs ran into Beckett and Bartman, they rode the arms of Prior and Kerry Wood past the Braves. Prior is represented here by his postseason debut, in which he too outdueled Maddux (six innings, two runs). Wood was 26 by the time of that postseason run; his 1998 NLDS Game 3 start against the Braves ranked 21st on the list at 58, just below the cutoff for the table.

5: Sonny Gray
Two great factoids from Gray’s gem: This was the first postseason game in history in which each starter had at least nine strikeouts and didn’t allow a run, and Gray was the second starter in franchise history with at least eight shutout innings, nine strikeouts and no more than four hits allowed; the first was Chief Bender of the Philadelphia A’s in the Game 2 of the 1905 World Series – just the 10th World Series game ever played.

6, 7T: Madison Bumgarner
As a 20-year-old rookie who joined the Giants rotation in late June, Bumgarner gave his team a sizable midseason boost, and came up even bigger in the postseason. His six-inning, two-run performance against the Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS helped the Giants clinch their first postseason series since 2002, and just missed the cut above with a 56 Game Score, tied for 22nd. His eight innings of three-hit shutout ball in Game 4 of the World Series pushed the Rangers to the brink of elimination; they clinched on the next night.

Bumgarner was still young enough to make the list during his team’s 2012 title run as well, with seven innings of two-hit shutout ball in Game 2 against the Tigers. He matched zeroes with Doug Fister until the Giants scraped out a run in the bottom of the seventh, during which Bumgarner was lifted for a pinch-hitter.

7T: Michael Wacha
Via Elias, Wacha’s 7 1/3 no-hit innings rank as the longest by a rookie in postseason history, topping the 5 1/3 spun by the Giants’ Jeff Tesereau in the 1912 World Series against the Red Sox. Including his Sept. 24 start against the Nationals, he was also the first pitcher since Dave Stieb in 1988 to throw at least seven innings of no-hit ball in consecutive starts.

7T: Barry Zito
Alas, Zito holds a somewhat dubious spot on this list, as it’s the highest score among these whippersnappers in a losing cause, and the only one in the top 10. The one run he allowed, on a fifth-inning solo homer by Jorge Posada, was one more than the Yankees’ Mike Mussina yielded in seven innings (with Mariano Rivera throwing the other two, naturally). Mussina was aided in large part by Derek Jeter’s uncanny shovel-pass assist to nail Jeremy Giambi at the plate — yes, THAT play — in the seventh inning.

10: John Lackey
As a rookie, Lackey joined the Angels in late June and pitched well enough down the stretch to earn a postseason spot. After throwing three scoreless innings in relief against the Yankees in the ALDS, he extended his postseason streak to 10 shutout innings against the Twins in the ALCS and ran it to 12 before being chased in the third inning of Game 2 of the World Series against the Giants. Nonetheless, he bounced back to start both Games 4 (on two days’ rest) and Game 7, grinding out five innings in each while helping the Halos win their lone championship; the former one came on his 24th birthday, while the latter one, where he allowed one run, would have tied the aforementioned Kerry Wood start for 21st had he been young enough to qualify.

There’s plenty more that could be said about the remainder of the table — Moore’s outing came with just one regular season start under his belt, Wright’s largely forgotten effort in Game 7 of the World Series against the Marlins, and so on — but it’s worth placing these starts in the larger perspective instead.

Going beyond the Wild-Card Era to incorporate the Divisional Play Era as well (1969 onward), Beckett and Hernandez stand as the fifth- and 10th-highest postseason game scores for pitchers of any age, and 1-2 for the 23-and-under set. Gray’s start is tied for 69th and eighth in those two groups; Wacha is 90th and 11th and Cole is 355th and 34th. Some of that may not sound impressive until you realize it’s from among 2,000 starts. Viewed that way, Gray’s start is in the top 3.5 percent for all starting pitchers during that span, Wacha is in the top 4.5 percent and Cole is in the top 18 percent.

Including all postseason play dating back to the inception of the World Series in 1903 — a total of 2,768 games — Beckett’s gem is tied for eighth all-time, with Hernandez tied for 14th. Among the 23-and-unders, Beckett ranks second and Hernandez third; Gray is tied for 14th, Wacha is tied for 20th and Cole is tied for 56th.  The only pitcher 23-and-under to outdo Beckett and Hernandez: Babe Ruth at 21 years, 246 days in Game 2 of the 1916 World Series. The Bambino threw a record 14 innings while allowing just one run against the Cubs en route to a Game Score of 97.

Will Cole, Gray or Wacha add to the list? We’ll find out as soon as Wednesday when Cole takes the mound in a double-elimination Game 5 against the Cardinals.

2 comments
davidwoodweb
davidwoodweb

Back in the "pre-wildcard" era, Steve Avery had an amazing 1991 NLCS at the age of 21. In two starts: 2 wins, 16.1 innings, 9 hits, 4 walks, 17 strikeouts, no runs allowed.

canine34
canine34

When he was 21, Babe Ruth gave up one earned run while pitching FOURTEEN INNINGS of a World Series game.

The greatest baseball player ever, there is no debate to be had.